Moving from Grudging Admiration to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Fall of Maduro.

A unexpected operation on the capital in the dead of night, ending with the capture of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the official statements, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was meant to proceed: swift, dramatic and conclusive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be fighting for four years.”

These observations have fueled a mood of introspection among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how audacious the US intervention appeared to be. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for Maduro's regime just in late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to express outrage. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”