Keir Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.

Major Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process

Multiple members on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to head off any potential leadership challenge.

The party apparatus is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several insiders also shared fears about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an offensive online group.