Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
