From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro

Against the backdrop of the immense confusion surrounding the US strikes on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “control” the country and “seize control of the oil”, a single fact remains evident – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States has a grim history of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday marked its premier large-scale offensive on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.

The move to assault another sovereign country and seize its president – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – possesses far-reaching consequences. It should alarm us all.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has remarked that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and dismissed conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other factions of the headless administration are even more hardline.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who won power promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a lawless actor.

He is convinced that the America's power allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: consider the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He claims that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came absent any United Nations mandate or congressional approval; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to obliterate them.

Set aside the implication this carries to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will almost certainly fuel further adventurism.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

It is widely rejected the excuse that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is motivated by the promise of energy wealth as well as a desire to project strength, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the appetite for triumphalism as his support at home declines.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode highlights the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could still pressure him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, economic unhappiness and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.

It has been less than 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may live to repent if they stay silent now, considering the potential next target.